So Iowa is now over and the field of Republican contenders now move to New Hampshire and South Carolina for the next round of knock down, drag out politics as they battle it out to see who will go on to face President Barack Obama in November. Let's take a quick look at the "Super Seven" and see, after last night's Caucus. where each candidiate goes from here.
Governor Mitt Romney: Well, he won so it's extremely obvious that for the former MA Governor and front-runner of the pack, that the race continues his quest and heads towards New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida to continue to present his case as to why he should be the man to challenge the President. His victory, with 30, 015 votes, just eight more than the number two guy and twenty-five percent of the vote, wasn't quite the ringing endorsement from the Republican voters in Iowa that he had hoped for and runs roughly about in the same area where he's polled for the past several months. The people are starting to realize Mitt is probably the most electable candidiate against Obama, but they just don't really have any love or passion for him. With Romney, the Republican's are settling and it's obvious. He's not what they want, but he's the best option available and they're realizing that. Mitt lucked out and squeaked out a win last night in Iowa, but he's got a long ways to go to win the majority of the Republican voters and Independents. And while he should win in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida will not go over quite as easy and I suspect that we'll see Governor Romney take some heavy shots and be inflicted with some major wounds. He won last night, but for Romney, the fighting has just really started.
Rick Santorum: For the former PA Senator, last night was a big, big moment. He may have (eventually) lost the caucusm, but only by eight votes and that's not definitely nothing to be ashamed at. But he'd better enjoy the moment in the sun and the glory because it's not going to last long. Let's be honest here. Santorum is a good looking guy who knows how to work people and do the hands-on person to person politics. He visited every county in Iowa and worked an impressive one on one with the people campaign and it paid off for him in spades with 25% of the vote and 30, 007 votes, only eight less than the winner, Mitt Romney. Santorum's approach worked for Iowa, but how will it play out in the rest of the country? While he might be able to do well in South Carolina, he doesn't have the money or resources to compete in what will be the ad-driven and knock-down, drag out matches in New Hampshire and Florida. Santorum talks a good game, but once he gets exposed to the deep scrutiny and vetting process, his record as a Senator, as well as his extremely bigoted and homophobic views will end up biting him in the butt. He's a good regional candidiate, especially for a place like Iowa, but for a national campaign, he doesn't stand a chance. He's just the latest "anti-Romney" candidiate to have his moment in the sun, but it can't last and the only thing that last night's second place finish did was just add a few more weeks to the flame before it eventually fizzles out.
Ron Paul: Like Santorum, the Ron Paul campaign did very well, coming in third with twenty-two percent of the votes, but for the Republican Congressman, the peak has been hit and there is no where to go, but down. Ron Paul is a very likable man and on economic issues, he's a very smart and knowledgable man, but ever since he's come under the spotlight and more scrutiny, his support has been waning a little bit. He still has the best on the ground workers and system in play and he's not going away. That being said, he peaked last night and as the race continues, and the scrutiny continues, the fact that as a legitimate candidiate for President, he's unelectable and can't win a national election against President Obama, will take root in more and more people's heads and I suspect that his support will fizzle away to just the loyal base. Paul has some valid and strong points, but he's not the man to our leader and I think last night will end up as his shining moment. But it can't and won't last. Too bad for the Congressman.
Newt Gingrich: Don't count the former Speaker of the House out. If history is any indication, Newt is going to recover from the wounds inflicted by this race and regroup. By the way, today (January 4) is the 17th Anniversary of Newt's swearing in as the Speaker of the House in 1995. It's obvious that Newt was percieved as the threat by both the Romney and Paul campaigns and they pulled out all the stops to make sure that every single piece of dirty laundry in Newt's life was prominently exposed for the world to see. And it worked. Newt went from leading the polls to only coming in with 4th place and 13% of the vote. But what I'm seeing is that with this defeat, the sleeping dragon may have woken up. So far, Newt had played nice and had assumed the role of statesman for the Republican party. But being Mr. Nice Guy is not the way Newt is most effective. It wasn't by playing nice that allowed Newt ro become the Speaker, get welfare reform passed in the Congress, get a balanced budget with President Clinton for several years straight or pass the "Contract With America". The gloves are off and now, we're getting the real Newt who not only can fight dirty with the best of them, but could probably give the Barack Obama Chicago crew a few lessons as well Newt has baggage and lots of it. He's not a nice person. BUT he knows how to get things done. And I think that it's time for the gloves to come off and the monster to be unleashed. I've said it before and I truly believe that in the end, the final two men in this race will be Mitt and Newt. Paul will be there too, but he's not electable. Everyone is writing Newt off and that's a big mistake. As the race progresses, we're going to see what Newt can really do. And it's not going to be pretty, but it may end up taking him to the top.
Rick Perry: After coming into the race with such momentum and energy, the Rick Perry campaign has just sort of sputtered and fizzled ever since. Perry has cancelled all of his upcoming events in South Carolina and has gone back to Texas to evaluate his campaign and ponder his future. In other words, it's over folks! Perry came in and had a good run, but his flubs in the debates hurt his stature and credibility and he never managed to recover. So it's back to Texas and we get to wait for the official announcement. So long, Rick. We barely got a chance to know you.
Michele Bachmann: Talk about delusional. The Congresswoman was born in Iowa, yet barely managed to get just over 1,000 votes (probably from family members) and she still thinks that she has a chance in this election? It's obvious to anyone who pays attention that Bachmann lives in a fantasy world of her own and can't see the writing on the wall. Her campaign has been stumbling from day one and with this crushing defeat and rejection by her home state, it's pretty apparant that her campaign has fallen and it can't get up. She needs to give it up and just go away. Far, far away!
Jon Huntsman: He didn't compete in Iowa so the results of last night have no effect on the former Utah Governor. Huntsman has decided to put all of his efforts and money into New Hampshire and see if he can pull a "Rick Santorum" in the nation's first primary. I don't think he'll win in New Hampshire, but unless something major happens, I think he can successfully pull off a third place finish and make a mark in this campaign. But that'll be about it for Huntsman, which is kind of sad because, in my opinion anyhow, he's probably the most electable man in a national election and matches up extremely well against the President. But he's more moderate than the rest of the GOP pack and in the primaries, dominated by the far right factions of the party, that's the kiss of death. Maybe he (and the voters) will surprise us and we'll see a big Huntsman explosion in popularity and money and he can become a top dog in the pack. That'd be nice, but I don't think it'll happen.
And that's my brief analysis of the Republican pack as it stands now. It's Romney's race to win or lose, but don't count out Newt or Huntsman. Paul has peaked and while he's not going anywhere, he's not going to be a serious factor for any of the other primaries. Bachmann lives in a dream world of fantasy and unicorns, while Perry is proving to be smarter than anyone realized and looks to be headed back towards Texas. And as for the man of the hour, Rick Santorum... enjoy the spotlight, but the bright lights of scrutiny start to really shine, it won't be long before you're back in the bottom of the pack and just a statistic and footnote.
Well, that's it for me and my thoughts on the Iowa Caucuses. The first state has done their thing and we only have forty-nine more to go. Oh vey! This is going to be a long, long year!
Ubuntu!
NOTE: Just as I finshed typing this up, I flipped on the TV and it looks like reality has shown up in Michele Bachmann-land. She's preparing to announce that she's suspending her campaign. So that's two down and four more to go and we get a nominee. It's STILL going to be a long year! Later!
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